XRP is trading at $1.39, down 5% on the day, as the token erases a portion of this week’s rally. XRP has now broken below its previous quarter value area high, an important technical level placed at $1.43. While XRP briefly reclaimed that level following strong ETF inflows and a historically favorable Thursday-to-Sunday trading window, the follow-through has been weak, with price now trading back below it.
- Previous quarter value area high: $1.43, now acting as resistance rather than support
- A clean break and failure to reclaim this level shifts the next downside target to $1.30
- The analyst said he does not expect a full drop to $1.30 but says XRP is showing less strength than anticipated
ETF Inflows Are Cooling
The expert also pointed to declining ETF inflows as a signal worth watching. Inflows have passed their recent peak and are now trending lower, though he noted that when outflow trends historically begin to shrink rather than accelerate, it often marks a market bottom, a pattern he said cannot yet be confirmed given how new XRP ETF data still is.
Order Flow Remains a Bright Spot
Despite the weaker price action, order flow data keeps him from turning bearish. Funding rates have dropped to low levels, suggesting the market may be approaching oversold territory. Cumulative volume delta has been pushing downward since Wednesday evening, with new shorts opening and longs closing, yet price has held up rather than collapsing alongside that positioning shift.
Price Targets for August 29
Based on current structure, XRP could consolidate near the $1.43 previous quarter value area high rather than mount a fresh move higher in the immediate term. His base case includes:
- Consolidation range: centered around $1.43, with a possible brief spike to the downside
- Upside target if strength holds: $1.55
- Downside target if $1.43 fails to reclaim: $1.30, though considered less likely at this stage
Important Catalyst to Watch: NFP Annual Revision
A payrolls figure that comes in significantly out of line with expectations could distort near-term price action, and any accompanying commentary that shifts odds for the September FOMC meeting could drive a more sustained move in either direction.
XRP’s setup into August 29 remains technically fragile but not decisively bearish. With $1.43 now the level to reclaim and $1.30 the downside line in the sand, traders are watching whether cooling ETF inflows and softening momentum give way to renewed buying, or whether the weekend’s macro data adds fresh downside pressure.
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