Bitcoin traders are eagerly anticipating that the upcoming scheduled decrease in the issuance of new coins will lead to a significant surge in Bitcoin’s price. Nevertheless, this expectation may not be fully realized this time, according to various experts. Deutsche Bank suggests that the effects of the Bitcoin halving are already reflected in its current price, and therefore, it does not foresee a major rally following the event.
Spot ETF Hype Might Outshine Halving
According to a research report released by Deutsche Bank, the upcoming Bitcoin (BTC) reward halving, which is expected to happen in the next few days around April 19-20, has already been factored into the market prices. Consequently, a significant rally in the cryptocurrency post-halving appears unlikely. This quadrennial event reduces the rate at which new Bitcoin is introduced into circulation, impacting the overall supply growth.
It is anticipated that prices will remain higher due to expectations surrounding the approval of future spot ether (ETH) ETFs, anticipated rate cuts by central banks, and regulatory changes, rather than being significantly impacted by the halving event.
The market will more likely focus on ETF performance now as the Bitcoin ETF market has seen a change in sentiment, marked by a short-term decline in investment flows. Data from a leading analytics firm shows that Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net outflow of $165 million just yesterday, with Grayscale’s GBTC experiencing a $133 million outflow and BlackRock’s IBIT gaining about $18.09 million.
Despite this downturn, Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas advises caution against hasty judgments on the sector’s future. He points out that such fluctuations are typical following intense growth periods. This might keep investors and traders glued, avoiding the impact of halving events.
Bitcoin Might Soon End Its Correction
Bitcoin and crypto traders have experienced a challenging week with several BTC price declines, yet a significant reset may be underway. Data from CryptoQuant indicates that traders’ exchange holdings have reached a breakeven point at $60,000, suggesting reduced selling pressure as unrealized profit margins become nearly zero. An accompanying chart highlighted the profit and loss status for short-term holders (STHs) — individuals who have owned BTC for 155 days or less.
These traders have exhausted their profitable opportunities, implying that selling activity might decrease to avoid realizing losses. To date, there has been just one brief fall below the $60,000 mark since BTC/USD started to pull back from record highs set in March.
Such pullbacks are typical following the establishment of new all-time highs, and the recent peak prior to this week’s halving of the block subsidy boosted expectations for a BTC price correction.
If ETF performance remains strong over the next week, there could be a significant increase in BTC prices. Conversely, negative developments in the ETF sector could drive prices down, regardless of the upcoming halving event.
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