Ethereum price rebounded over 6% in the past 24 hours, climbing back toward the $2,000 level after a sharp liquidation-driven decline earlier this month. However, despite the relief move, ETH remains below a critical resistance zone near $2,200 that continues to cap upside attempts.
The recent rebound comes as derivative leverage resets and funding rates normalize, suggesting the worst of the forced positioning flush may be over. The key question now is whether the ETH price is forming a base—or simply printing another lower high within a broader downtrend.
Open Interest Collapse Signals Deleveraging
Data across exchanges shows Ethereum’s open interest has fallen sharply from previous highs, representing a significant leverage reset. While falling OI reduces cascading liquidation risk, it also signals reduced speculative aggression. A sustained breakout would require renewed positioning while the levels are attempting to rise. Currently, the OI sits around $12 billion; a rise above $13 billion is required to flip the trend, while a surge above $17.5 could validate a rise in confidence among the traders.
Funding Rates Normalize After Negative Spike
Funding rates recently turned deeply negative during the Ethereum price drop, reflecting aggressive short positioning. They have now flipped mildly positive, suggesting extreme bearish sentiment has cooled, short squeeze pressure has diminished, and positioning is closer to neutral. This environment often supports short-term stabilization rather than immediate trend reversal. When the market is bullish, the funding rate is typically positive and increases over time, meaning long traders pay the funding fee to the short traders.
On-Chain Activity Elevated but Cooling
Active addresses surged during the recent volatility phase, signaling heightened network engagement. However, activity has begun to cool from its peak but maintains a significant upswing. For a structural bullish case to strengthen, on-chain participation would need to expand alongside price recovery. At present, the data reflects stabilisation, not expansion.
Structure: Relief Rally Within a Bearish Trend
On the daily timeframe, the Ethereum price remains structurally weak. Price is still trading below the $2,200–$2,240 resistance band, a descending short-term trendline, and the 50 RSI threshold. After breaking down from the $2,200 region earlier, ETH flushed toward the $1,900 zone before stabilizing. As long as $2,200 remains unclaimed, the broader trend bias stays bearish.
What’s Next for the Ethereum Price Rally?
The Ethereum price is currently trying hard to break above the descending trend line and reclaim $2200. If this move materialises with a strong volume, then the rally may test the upside targets at $2400 initially and later at $2600. However, a breakout accompanied by rising open interest would signal a transitional phase.
On the other hand, if the ETH price fails to break $2,200, the downside risk may drag the levels to $1,744, and if the pressure increases, it may eventually reach close to $1500. Therefore, securing this range is extremely important for the bullish continuation; otherwise, the rally may continue to print lower highs and lows.
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