- Today’s rebound in XRP price may drive a renewed recovery in the falling channel pattern of the daily chart.
- The latest on-chain data shows firm conviction from small-to-mid tier investors of XRP, while the whales continue to distribute in the market since last year.
- The $1.32 and $1.22 stands as key support levels for XRP buyers.
On Monday, the XRP price bounced over 4% to reach its trading value of $1.45. The buying pressure aligns with overall crypto market recovery as Bitcoin reclaims $70,000 after President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 5-day pause on planned U.S. strikes on Iran. However, the latest on-chain data shows underlying demand from retail investors, bolstering the asset for further recovery. Can XRP coin sustain above the $1.5 mark?
Retail Buying vs Whale Distribution Clash
Over the past six weeks, the XRP price has traded sideways within a narrow range from $1.6 to $1.42. The coin price showcased several attempts to breach these barriers but failed to sustain beyond them, resulting in immediate reversal.
The lack of initiation from buyers or sellers to drive a strong breakout can be attributed to broader market uncertainty amid geopolitical tension in the Middle East. Typically, such market FUD (Fear, uncertainty, and doubt) triggers panic among retailers.
However, the new numbers on the distribution of token ownership among user addresses show a different story. According to Santiment data. Over 5.66 million wallets are holding less than 100 XRP each. Another 2.01 million wallets are in the middle range of holding between 100 and 100,000 XRP.
As shown in the chart below, the number of wallets belonging to these cohorts has been steadily rising since last year, indicating a higher conviction from them for XRP’s growth potential.
On the other hand, a smaller group of 32,054 wallets has control of over 100,000 XRP each. These investors are often referred to as whales as they often hold or transact with a large portion of coin.
Historically, a distribution phase from large holders and buying pressure from small-to-mid tier holds have often resulted with continued correction in price.
XRP Price Chart Pattern Drives the Mid-Term Trend
By press time, the XRP price trades at $1.44, recording an intraday gain of roughly 4%. Despite the market uncertainty, the coin price is currently positioned at the middle of the falling channel pattern in the daily chart.
Since late July 2025, the XRP price has strictly resonated between the two parallel trendlines of this pattern, which act as a dynamic resistance and support. If the buying pressure persists, the price could rise 15% and challenge the channel resistance at $1.67.
Our XRP price prediction suggests a bullish breakout from the resistance will further strengthen the buyer’s grip over XRP to drive a sustained price recovery towards the $2 mark.
However, the downsloping slope of daily EMAs (20, 50,100, and 200) supports the bearish narrative of price. If sellers continue to hold the overhead trendline, the XRP price could revert lower and drive an extended correction below $1.5.
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