Auction Showcases a Shift in Values

Phillips

While many lots hovered in the lower half of the estimate range, it was independent brands like Philippe Dufour, Urban Jürgensen and F. P. Journe that surpassed high estimates in heated bidding battles. Curiously, there was also a strong showing for complicated pocket watches. Meanwhile, Rolex showed weaker results.

We recently analyzed data from the Geneva spring auction season and concluded that pandemic collectors had left the scene and that knowledgeable collectors were focused not on sports watches (e.g., Rolex generally, Audemars Piguet Royal Oak, and Patek Nautilus) but traditionally styled complicated watches. With an eye for rarity and complication, bidders were raising their paddles for traditional watchmaking. Last week we asked if this constituted a trend, and whether it was tied to the broader trend toward smaller dress watches? We ventured a “yes.”

So, we were keen to see if Phillips New York Watch Auction: X would show that we were on the right track. I do believe we can pat ourselves on the back for predicting that dress watches and traditionally styled complicated watches would continue to dominate, but what we weren’t seeing in our previous analysis was the specific focus on independent watchmakers. As I viewed the action last weekend, I was struck by the mid-estimate results for Rolex sports watches, and equally struck by soaring bids for independents and pocket watches.

Rolex Headed Downward

Before we get to the standout lots, consider some of the mid-performing Rolex lots, as I believe these are compelling indicators or where the market is headed.

A platinum Rolex Daytona reference 116506, which hammered at Christie’s in June of 2022 for $163,800, achieved only $95,250 (inclusive of fees) at Philipps last weekend—that’s $68,550 down from pandemic pricing. A 1971 Rolex Daytona reference 6264 with a co-signed Tiffany dial sold in 2017 at Phillips for CHF430,000 (around $480,000 at current conversion), and the same watch in (what I consider) far better condition brought in $349,250 last weekend—that’s $130,750 down.

Recall that it was in 2017 that Paul Newman’s Daytona hammered for $17.8 million, so we may finally be seeing the end of the “Newman effect” on not only Daytona pricing, but Rolex more generally. To drive that point home, consider that an rare, solid-gold Rolex Daytona reference 6239 with a Newman dial didn’t break the high estimate of $1 million, selling for $952,500 (inclusive of fees) last weekend at Phillips.

Granted, not every Rolex was performing in this manner last weekend, but even the very rare 1958 Rolex Milgauss 6541 with paperwork and in excellent condition just barely made it past the high estimate. Meanwhile a pre-Submariner Turno-O-Graph from 1953 with exceptional patina and a strong case came in below it’s high estimate of $24,000 to achieve just $21,590 (fees included). My gut tells me these two lots will soon be considered rather smart purchases.

Independents On The Rise

Philippe Dufour was very much the star of the show at Phillilps New York Watch Auction. It wasn’t entirely surprising, as Dufour is broadly considered one of—if not the—greatest watchmaker of his generation. An example of his restrained but complicated Duality from 1999 hammered for $2,056,500 (fees inclusive), setting the tone for the room late in the sale. Two lots later, an Urban Jürgensen reference 11C from 2011—a classically styled watch if ever there was one—blew straight past the $40,000 high estimate to achieve $152,400. I sincerely thought there’d been a mistake in the Phillips app. Hajime Asaoka‘s prototype (SN: 0) of the Japanese maker’s partially skeletonized tourbillon achieved $361,950, which is $121,950 above the high estimate for this timepiece. Various models from F. P. Journe performed excellently throughout the auction as well, though perhaps not as heartily as these other independents.

The narrative is clear enough: Independet watchmakers were the stars of Phillips New York Watch Auction this year. But not so much the avant garde makers (e.g. MB&F or Urwerk) as those who adhere to traditional forms, higher complications, and dress watch styles.

If I were to offer a theory as to why these independent brands performed so well last weekend, it would be that the watchmakers themselves (with the exception of Asaoka) are advancing in age. Their age signals two things: These makers are now clearly established as the best of their generation, and these makers will not be making watches all that much longer. That means you’re going to get established reputation and guaranteed rarity, the two qualities that savvy collectors with deeper knowledge understand as essential to a distinguished collection. This may also explain why complicated pocket watches were also surpassing the high estimates last weekend.