Meanwhile, California’s EV sales stopped growing in Q2 2024, but so did the overall car market.
InsideEVs
Jul 20, 2024 at 1:00pm ET
California’s all-electric car sales remained roughly three times higher than the U.S. average of 7.5% in the first half of 2024. The state was also responsible for a full third of all EV registrations in the country. Of those, the Tesla Model Y retained its sales crown, but other EV brands like Rivian and Hyundai are gaining steam—and moving into areas where Tesla doesn’t play yet.
It’s worth noting that the Hyundai Ioniq 5 became California’s third most popular EV. Meanwhile, the Rivian R1S is now the top-selling large SUV in the state, outselling options like the Lexus TX and Cadillac Escalade, according to the California New Car Dealers Association’s (CNCDA) data and estimates. Still, the Tesla Cybertruck is off to a good start, already joining the top 10 EVs sold in 10th place.
25% Plug-In Car Share—What Now?
Plug-in electric car share in California is relatively stable at roughly 25% (including 22% for EVs) in the first half of the year. The main question is whether we will see further sales grow to increase this number.
Yet there are signs that both the EV market and total car sales are down, in part due to factors like high interest rates. Sales of plug-in electric cars were down in Q2 for the first time since 2020.
New light vehicle registrations in California during the second quarter of 2024 were estimated at 460,725, nearly 2% less than a year earlier. The first half of the year was also slower than a year ago, at 892,363 units, down 0.7%.
During the second quarter of 2024, some 116,306 new plug-in cars were registered in California, 1.3% less than a year ago. Rechargeable cars accounted for 25.2% of the total market, which is a new record (marginally higher than the previous one).
Battery electric vehicle (EV) registrations amounted to 101,443, down 1.3% year over year, taking 22.0% of the market—also a new record. Plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEV) registrations decreased by 1.6% year over year to 14,863 (3.2% share).
Simultaneously, sales of non-rechargeable hybrids continued to increase at a healthy rate. In Q2, 62,038 new hybrids were registered, 22% more than a year ago, which is enough for nearly 13.5% of the market.
Below, we attached the latest quarterly and year-to-date numbers, with new graphs based on the latest data (revised compared to the previous quarters).
Plug-in electric car registrations in California (est.) in Q2’2024 (YOY change):
- BEVs: 101,443 (down 1.3%) and 22% share
- PHEVs: 14,863 (down 1.6%) and 3.2% share
- Total plug-ins: 116,306 (down 1.3%) and 25.2% share
- HEVs: 62,038 (up 22%) and 13.5% share
- Total xEVs: 178,344 (up 5.6%) and 38.7% share
* CNCDA revised some numbers; some numbers were estimated
During the first half of the year, all-electric car registrations increased marginally by 0.5% to 191,322 units. PHEVs were up by almost 4% to 30,542. If the weakening continues, California will see a decline in plug-in car sales in 2024.
Plug-in electric car registrations in California (est.) in Q1-Q2’2024 (YOY change):
- BEVs: 191,322 (up 0.5%) and 21.4% share
- PHEVs: 30,542 (up 3.8%) and 3.4% share
- Total plug-ins: 221,864 (up 0.9%) and 24.9% share
- HEVs: 118,222 (up 35%) and 13.2% share
- Total xEVs: 340,086 (up 10.6%) and 38.1% share
For reference, in 2023, roughly 440,000 plug-in cars were registered in California (45% more than in 2022), which was 24.7% of the total market. EVs noted about 380,000 units registered, equaling about a 21% share of overall California car sales.
The number of stand-alone all-electric models—listed among the most registered in their subcategories—amounted to 12.
All-electric car registrations in H1 2024:
- Tesla Model Y (69,810): #1 in Luxury Compact SUV (65.6% share)
- Tesla Model 3 (21,050): #1 in Near Luxury Cars (39.5% share)
- Hyundai Ioniq 5 (7,191): #5 in Compact SUV
- Tesla Model X (5,833): #2 in Luxury Mid-Size SUV
- Ford Mustang Mach-E (5,314): #3 in 2 Row Mid-Size SUV
- Rivian R1S (4,837): #1 in Luxury Large SUV (23.8% share)
- BMW i4 (4,060): #3 in Near Luxury Cars
- Chevrolet Bolt EV/Bolt EUV (3,960)
- Volkswagen ID.4 (3,909)
- Tesla Cybertruck (3,048)
- Toyota bZ4X (3,046)
- BMW iX (3,010): #5 in Luxury Mid-Size SUV
- Ford F-150 Lightning (2,999)
- Mercedes-Benz EQB (2,414): #2 in Luxury Subcompact SUV (17.3% share)
- Tesla Model S (2,363): #1 in Luxury and High-End Sports Cars (10.3% share)
- Audi Q4 e-tron (1,999): #3 in Luxury Subcompact SUV (14.3% share)
- BMW i5 (1,805): #2 in Luxury and High-End Sports Cars
The top plug-in hybrids were the Toyota RAV4 Prime (5,191) and Jeep Wrangler 4xe (4,614).
*Red underlined models indicate models that can be identified as plug-ins by their name.
As in previous quarters, the Tesla Model Y is the state’s best-selling car overall. On the other hand, the Tesla Model 3 remained outside the top five.
The top models overall (H1’2024):
- Tesla Model Y – 69,810
- Toyota RAV4 – 36,160
- Toyota Camry – 29,012
- Honda Civic – 26,926
- Honda CR-V – 25,340
- Tesla Model 3 – 21,050
In Q2, Tesla noted a significant 24.1% year-over-year decrease in registrations to 52,211. The brand’s share decreased to 11.3% from 14.6% a year ago.
Tesla remains the dominant player in the EV segment with a 51% share in Q2 2024. However, all non-Tesla BEV registrations combined were about 49,232, and they might soon outpace Tesla. Take the Rivian R1S, for example; Tesla offers no options that can be considered a true luxury large SUV, with the Model X being only a midsize one. As more competitors offer new options in different segments, Tesla could soon lose more overall market share.
BEV registration results in California in Q2:
- Tesla: 52,211 (down 24.1%, 11.3% share)
non-Tesla BEVs total: 49,232
CNCDA shows that Tesla had a 3.8% share in the U.S. market in H1 2024. Compared to the total number of 7,758,241 units sold, Tesla accounted for approximately 295,000 units.
The number of Teslas registered in states outside California (calculated as the difference between the estimated total U.S. and California) was roughly 193,000.
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