Bitcoin may still be far from its ultimate market bottom, according to fresh analysis from on-chain analyst Ki Young Ju, who said traditional cycle indicators are not yet signaling a full capitulation phase.
Using a long-term logarithmic chart, Ju said Bitcoin’s current structure does not resemble previous cycle bottoms. Historically, every major Bitcoin bear market eventually pushed prices close to the realized price, the average cost basis of all investors. While Bitcoin is moving closer to those levels, Ju says the market has not fully reached the point that historically marked major bottoms.
According to Ju, Bitcoin’s risk-to-reward profile improves as prices approach investors’ cost basis. He noted that every previous major cycle eventually touched realized price before establishing a long-term bottom.
Here’s a log-scale chart.
From a traditional cycle perspective, Bitcoin does not look close to a bottom yet.
Risk/reward improves sharply as price approaches investors’ cost basis.
Every major cycle has touched realized price.
If not, maybe “this time is different.” pic.twitter.com/4EARtkfRYQ
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) June 26, 2026
Ju warned that unless “this time is different,” Bitcoin may still need to fall further before a true cycle bottom is formed.
Bitcoin Could Drop Below $30,000
Alongside Ju’s caution, several market analysts comparing previous cycles have raised concerns that Bitcoin could still revisit the $30,000 region.
After the 2017 bull market peak, Bitcoin corrected by roughly 83%. Following the 2021 top, the cryptocurrency fell about 77%. If the 2025 rally marked another cycle peak, a similar correction could theoretically send Bitcoin toward or even below $30,000.
Analysts warn that the final stage of every bear market usually arrives when investors become convinced the bottom is already in. Similar patterns emerged in both 2018 and 2022, when brief recoveries created optimism before another sharp decline erased market confidence.
Bitcoin remains below its 2025 highs, momentum has weakened, and some analysts think the market could be entering another late-cycle “bleed phase.”
Altcoins Could Suffer Even More
Market commentators also warn that if Bitcoin experiences another major leg down, altcoins could face even steeper declines.
Many smaller cryptocurrencies are already underperforming Bitcoin as liquidity continues to shrink and retail participation remains weak. Analysts believe another Bitcoin selloff could trigger forced liquidations, broken support levels, and repricing across the altcoin market.
Other’s Sees a Higher Bottom Range
Not every analyst expects Bitcoin to revisit $30,000.
Chinese Bitcoin mining veteran Jiang Zhuoer recently projected that Bitcoin could bottom between $42,000 and $44,000 sometime between October and December 2026.
Jiang based his outlook on Strategy’s declining market net asset value (mNAV), which recently dropped to 0.72, close to levels seen during the 2022 bear market transition. However, he noted that mNAV bottoms have historically occurred around six months before Bitcoin reaches its final cycle low.
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