Bitcoin has climbed roughly 30% from its February lows and bulls have been feeling good about it for weeks. The problem, according to one analyst who has held the same macro thesis unchanged for months, is that this is exactly how it felt before the last two major drops.
The bigger picture has not changed. Bitcoin is working through a larger corrective structure and the current move higher is a bounce within that correction, not a new bull trend. The analyst has seen this pattern play out repeatedly:
- Upward moves in corrective phases take a long time, keeping bulls feeling right for extended periods
- Volume during this rally has dropped to levels not seen since 2023, signalling a market approaching an inflection point rather than building genuine momentum
- When the eventual decline comes it tends to be sharp and fast, catching most participants off guard
Not Yet, But Getting Closer
The analyst is not calling a top right now. One or possibly two more highs remain likely before the setup he is watching materialises. What he is specifically looking for:
- A clean five-move decline from whatever high forms next is the first signal a top is in
- Until that structure appears the upside door stays open and the channel holds
- A three-move bounce following that decline creates the ideal short entry with a tight stop and a strong reward-to-risk ratio
The Levels That Matter
Bitcoin could push toward the $82,000 resistance zone and potentially test the top of the channel before any reversal develops. Below current price the key levels break down as follows:
- First support: $74,968 to $77,250
- Channel lower boundary: approximately $76,400
- Deeper support: $67,500 to $72,900 if selling accelerates
The rally is real and the channel is intact. But the analyst has seen this movie before and knows how it tends to end. The only question is whether it starts from here or from a little higher up.
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