Bitcoin enters the third quarter still in a bear market, with technical analysis suggesting one more leg lower remains likely before a bounce develops in July, followed by a sharp bearish August and a possible final low forming around October.
Where Bitcoin Stands Right Now
The current structure remains clearly bearish according to Elliott Wave analysis tracking the decline since June. Bitcoin is consolidating between micro support and resistance, with the first resistance zone sitting between $60,812 and $62,589.
A break above that level would be the first signal that the anticipated Q3 bounce has begun. Until then, one more low remains the more likely scenario, potentially testing the $55,500 to $56,000 support cluster that aligns with a larger Fibonacci support zone on higher timeframes.
The broader market regime indicators reinforce the bearish read. A 365-day regime divider confirms Bitcoin remains in bear market conditions, and price is currently trading below an entire bearish-aligned moving average ribbon spanning $64,000 to $81,000, closely matching the $67,000 to $77,000 resistance zone that has rejected multiple rally attempts this cycle.
Why July Could Bring Relief
Despite the bearish backdrop, seasonality offers a genuine reason for optimism in the near term. Historical data shows July has consistently been one of the stronger months for Bitcoin even during bear market years, often producing a corrective three-wave rally before renewed selling resumes. August, by contrast, has historically been one of the most bearish months of the year.
A bullish divergence is also forming on the RSI, with price posting a lower high while the RSI itself prints a higher low, a pattern that frequently precedes short-term rallies back toward resistance. Combined with the seasonal pattern, this supports the case for a July bounce, whether as a smaller wave two within the current decline or a larger corrective structure.
The Q3 Targets
If the current Elliott Wave structure plays out, Bitcoin’s first major downside target sits near $39,000, based on a 100% Fibonacci extension from the recent wave structure. The path there could be direct or could involve an extended bounce first. On the upside, any July rally is expected to face resistance between $67,000 and $77,000, with the 200-day moving average near $75,000 reinforcing that zone.
Time cycle analysis points toward a potential final low forming around October, give or take 30 days, consistent with how previous Bitcoin bear markets have typically lasted between 360 and 380 days. This would place the end of the current bear market squarely within Q4 2026, setting up the next bull market phase.
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