Bitcoin’s latest surge has traders making increasingly aggressive bets that the rally has further to run.
On Monday, one or more traders bought 2,000 Bitcoin call-option contracts with an $82,000 strike price expiring Sept. 4, according to Laevitas. The position cost about $2.9 million in premiums.
The trade is a straightforward bullish bet: Bitcoin needs to rise above $82,000 before expiration for the options to become profitable. If it stays below that level, the buyers could lose the entire $2.9 million premium.
The bet comes after an explosive week for Bitcoin. BTC has risen roughly 25% in seven days, climbing from around $64,000 to above $80,000, according to CoinDesk data.
Several factors have helped drive the move, including the U.S. Treasury’s bond-buyback announcement, continued demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs and a wave of short liquidations that accelerated the rally.
Bitcoin Traders Bet $2.9 Million on a Break Above $82,000
ETF demand keeps growing
The latest move has been supported by more than short covering.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $337.56 million in net inflows on Aug. 24, extending their streak to six consecutive trading days, according to SoSoValue. More than $2.5 billion has flowed into the funds during that period.
That is important because last week’s breakout was partly driven by a large short squeeze. Around $3 billion in crypto short positions were liquidated, forcing bearish traders to buy back Bitcoin and pushing prices higher.
Short squeezes can provide a powerful initial spark, but they eventually fade as leveraged shorts are cleared out. Sustained ETF inflows, by contrast, represent fresh demand that can continue supporting the market.
Bitcoin ETF assets have climbed to about $98.56 billion from $78.67 billion a week earlier, helped by both inflows and the rise in BTC’s price.
The durability of the rally may therefore depend on whether that demand continues after the initial surge loses momentum.
Total Bitcoin Spot ETF Net Inflow (USD) (Source: Coinglass)
Options market remains cautious
Despite the large bullish call purchase, the broader options market is not showing complete confidence in a straight-line rally.
Laevitas data shows Bitcoin’s seven-day options skew falling to -5.17% from +2.36%. Negative skew generally indicates stronger demand for downside protection, as traders pay relatively more for puts.
Ethereum’s seven-day skew has also turned negative, falling to -12.15% from +3.41%.
Laevitas said the positioning reflected aggressive demand for protection following Bitcoin’s sharp rally and suggested traders were preparing for increased event risk later in the week.
That caution is understandable. Bitcoin has gained around 25% in just seven days, leaving momentum indicators at unusually high levels.
The market is now caught between strong buying pressure and the possibility that traders will take profits after such a rapid advance.
Bitcoin faces a key technical test
Bitcoin’s next major obstacle is already in sight.
BTC reached an intraday high of $81,265 on Tuesday before retreating after running into its 50-week moving average, which currently sits near $81,085.
The 50-week moving average is closely followed by technical traders because it has historically helped distinguish temporary rallies from broader trend reversals.
Galaxy Research has highlighted the level as particularly important. Its analysis found that Bitcoin reclaimed the 50-week moving average in 11 of 13 completed bear markets before the bear-market low was confirmed.
A weekly close above roughly $82,000 would therefore carry significance beyond another short-term price gain. It could strengthen the case that Bitcoin’s broader downtrend has ended and that the market is entering a new bullish phase.
Bitcoin has already moved above its major daily moving averages, reinforcing the improving technical picture.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance on Aug. 25, 2026 (Source: CoinMarketCap)
A rally that may need to cool down
The biggest concern for bulls may simply be the speed of the move.
Bitcoin’s seven-day rate of change, or ROC, is currently around 25%. Such readings have been relatively rare over the past five years and have often been followed by a slowdown or period of consolidation.
That does not necessarily mean the rally is over. A pullback after a 25% weekly gain would be normal, particularly if Bitcoin can hold newly established support and ETF inflows remain positive.
The more important question is what happens after the market cools down.
If Bitcoin breaks decisively above the $81,000-$82,000 resistance zone while ETF demand remains strong, the move could gain another leg higher. If it fails repeatedly at that level, traders may begin locking in profits and waiting for a better entry.
For now, the $82,000 level is the number to watch.
Bitcoin has momentum, institutional demand and at least one trader willing to risk $2.9 million on a rapid breakout. But after a 25% weekly surge, the market still has to prove that it can turn this burst of momentum into a sustainable uptrend.
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