Investor Mark Yusko says Dogecoin’s entire value depends on one thing, Elon Musk never selling. Yusko made the comparison while explaining why he views SpaceX’s recent IPO the same way he views the meme coin, as an asset propped up almost entirely by belief in its most famous backer.
Comparing SpaceX to Dogecoin
Yusko says that Elon Musk and Mark Cuban own most of the entire Dogecoin supply, with a broader group of retail holders convinced the token carries real value on top of that. “If Elon sold one doge, doge would go to zero,” Yusko said, arguing the price exists only because its largest holders have chosen not to sell.
He compares SpaceX’s IPO structure to Dogecoin, calling it a similar cult asset. In his view, SpaceX isn’t quite as extreme, since it operates an actual business with a functioning satellite division. Still, Yusko argues the underlying dynamic looks familiar: a small float, concentrated ownership, and a wave of enthusiasm doing much of the work to support the price.
Why he thinks SpaceX is overvalued
Yusko said SpaceX only floated 4% of its shares, keeping 96% tightly locked up, split between Musk and a group of venture investors. He argues that structure, combined with an exception that let SpaceX join major indices despite having no profits, effectively funnels retail and retirement money into an overpriced security. “To me, that’s theft, really,” he said. “I mean, call it what it is.”
He points to Tesla’s trajectory as a preview of what could happen with SpaceX. Tesla’s stock, he said, rose roughly tenfold after a similar hype cycle and short squeeze, then sat flat for four and a half years while revenue declined and free cash flow turned negative.
The math problem, according to Yusko
He calls the SpaceX starting $2 trillion valuation a mathematical impossibility. Yusko argues that buying SpaceX today is nothing like buying early shares of Apple or Microsoft, since those companies started as small businesses that grew into essential infrastructure. SpaceX, by contrast, is already valued at a scale that would require it to become worth roughly half of projected US GDP for early investors to see the kind of returns some expect.
He said SpaceX’s AI ambitions, including data centers in space, are not technologically feasible in the near term, and expects the company’s cash flow to stay negative for years. Once lockup restrictions expire and insiders begin selling, Yusko said, he expects the price to fall sharply.
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