After weeks of relentless selling, the crypto market is finally showing signs of stabilizing. While prices have bounced from recent lows, Santiment analyst Brian Quinlivan said investors shouldn’t focus on price alone. Instead, he said on-chain data may reveal where the strongest long-term opportunities are emerging.
One metric drawing attention is Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV), which compares an asset’s market value with the average acquisition cost of holders and is commonly used to assess whether a cryptocurrency appears overvalued or undervalued.
Here’s what Santiment’s latest metrics reveal for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP.
Bitcoin: Sentiment Improves, But Whales Are Still Selling
Bitcoin price has recovered from around $58,100 to nearly $62,432, helping lift overall market sentiment. According to Quinlivan, Bitcoin’s social sentiment has climbed to its highest level in more than two weeks, showing traders are becoming more optimistic again.
However, he warns that the biggest players are telling a different story.
Wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have collectively sold around 54,700 BTC since mid-June. Historically, whale accumulation has often preceded more sustainable rallies, making the current selling trend something investors should continue watching.
Despite the selling, Quinlivan said Bitcoin’s long-term on-chain data remains encouraging. Its 365-day MVRV stands at roughly -30%, meaning the average long-term holder remains underwater. He said these deeply negative readings have historically marked attractive long-term accumulation zones rather than periods of excessive risk.
Ethereum: Whale Accumulation Is Slowly Returning
Ethereum Price is beginning to show more constructive on-chain signals.
According to Santiment, wallets holding between 100 and 100,000 ETH have resumed accumulation after several months of selling. While Ethereum’s 30-day MVRV has moved slightly back into positive territory following its rebound toward $1,700, its longer-term outlook remains more attractive.
The 365-day MVRV remains close to -41%, a level Quinlivan compared to April 2025, when Ethereum was facing widespread bearish sentiment before eventually staging a major recovery toward its previous highs.
Although he expects Ethereum to remain largely dependent on Bitcoin’s direction, Quinlivan said long-term downside risk appears relatively limited compared to previous market cycles.
XRP: On-Chain Data Shows Extreme Oversold Conditions
Among the three cryptocurrencies analyzed, Quinlivan believes XRP Price currently offers the strongest contrarian setup.
XRP recently defended the key $1.00 support, bouncing from roughly $1.01 while avoiding a decisive break below the psychological support level.
More importantly, both XRP’s 30-day and 365-day MVRV have dropped to around -45%, among the weakest readings recorded in recent years.
According to Quinlivan, these deeply negative readings have historically appeared after periods of retail capitulation following heavy losses. Similar conditions have often preceded meaningful recoveries once selling pressure begins to fade.
While he isn’t calling an exact market bottom, Quinlivan said XRP is currently sitting in one of its lowest historical risk zones, making it one of the most attractive long-term setups based solely on on-chain metrics.
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