Bitcoin just posted its first bullish RSI divergence since the end of last year, according to veteran macro investor Jordi Visser, who said the signal is shifting how he views the coming months.
Visser said he spotted the divergence using a 4 hour RSI chart. Price made a new low when Bitcoin broke through $60,000 recently, but the RSI reading stayed higher than it was at the previous low. “As a trader, I go, well, now I can buy something when we get back above 60, and I’ll just stop myself back out below the lows,” he said.
Visser, who also follows Elliott wave theory, believes Bitcoin is near the bottom of its range for the year ahead. He does not rule out a drop to $50,000 or even $45,000. “Do I think we’ll be over 100 a year from now? Yeah,” he said. “So what do I care whether I buy something at 60 or whatever.”
Where the money actually went
Visser said he underestimated how much capital would get pulled toward AI stocks instead of crypto. He pointed to Micron, which he said rose twenty times in value. “You don’t get that in big companies, and this is a big company,” he said, adding that startups without an AI angle struggled to attract investor interest over the past year.
That shift, he said, coincided with the October release of Opus 4.5 and a fading expectation of further rate cuts. The market had priced in 150 basis points of cuts as of late September, before that outlook reversed toward the possibility of another hike.
The Fed’s next move
The Fed could hike rates July 29, with the odds sitting at 35 to 40 percent now, according to Visser. He does not think policymakers actually want to raise rates, citing recent comments from a Fed official suggesting AI could bring a short inflationary bump followed by a longer deflationary trend. If the Fed holds steady, Visser expects Bitcoin to trade above $70,000, as markets begin pricing out any hike before the midterm elections.
He also pointed to a recent speech by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, arguing that digital assets and stablecoins are becoming central to how the administration wants to reshape the country’s role in global finance.
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